Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 20.024155 21.795759 23.755741 26.105833 28.875790 32.074280 36.104028
2024-12-29 17.328634 19.636360 22.378665 25.951065 30.600979 36.637345 45.427519
2025-01-05 15.478284 18.070577 21.323441 25.854287 32.280116 41.593767 57.389050
2025-01-12 13.956893 16.653239 20.176991 25.348493 33.222267 45.813957 70.678031
2025-01-19 13.271620 16.195610 20.183743 26.381867 36.627247 55.163249 100.694628
2025-01-26 12.351474 15.298590 19.435525 26.127031 37.876159 61.322831 131.804771
2025-02-02 11.672938 14.655482 18.954805 26.178190 39.643994 69.478194 185.052246
2025-02-09 11.140766 14.161657 18.624518 26.398313 41.776993 79.885250 286.425578
2025-02-16 10.646538 13.674192 18.240795 26.447869 43.576491 90.914298 486.215725
2025-02-23 10.152191 13.144233 17.730905 26.182274 44.618387 100.758735 912.501532
2025-03-02 9.773581 12.759009 17.413282 26.218645 46.378900 115.204469 3397.687848
2025-03-09 9.386453 12.332727 16.987068 25.980133 47.407034 128.387365 NaN
2025-03-16 9.027600 11.934478 16.585398 25.758952 48.509426 144.520056 NaN
2025-03-23 8.703663 11.572193 16.216651 25.558173 49.648083 163.890200 NaN
2025-03-30 8.420158 11.257680 15.905697 25.437399 51.017527 189.181036 NaN
2025-04-06 8.102703 10.871744 15.441538 24.931387 51.082285 206.194418 NaN
2025-04-13 8.024030 10.866724 15.651280 25.927954 56.408923 300.350294 NaN
2025-04-20 7.781348 10.579270 15.327809 25.676220 57.395787 354.796819 NaN
2025-04-27 7.594688 10.375194 15.142955 25.723619 59.554253 460.599352 NaN
2025-05-04 7.440903 10.218018 15.033502 25.936077 62.512785 664.007926 NaN
2025-05-11 7.277361 10.036396 14.865161 25.983505 64.875487 987.062237 NaN
2025-05-18 7.089275 9.804972 14.587486 25.725331 65.829552 1383.442458 NaN
2025-05-25 6.944877 9.642098 14.431908 25.760446 68.228300 2711.704290 NaN